I always like to start by copying what I wrote in last year’s
post!
There are a lot of maybes
and could be's in those predictions. So it's really possible for the Gators to
finish 11-1 and face a rematch with Alabama. It's also likely that will finish
10-2 and finish behind Georgia in the East. It's also easily possible for them
to finish 8-4 or worse!
Until Emory Jones proves he
can be an every down quarterback and Todd Grantham can prove that last year was
just a product of Covid rust in tackling and coverages, I can't see
the Gators winning the championship this year. I think the 10-2 scenario is the
most likely but I could also see a 7-5 season if they don't progress or get
some bad breaks along the way.
I doubt anyone saw the train wreck coming that was Gator
football in 2021. There were certainly clues but no one could have predicted
how bad it really got. But both of my questions were answered in the wrong way
for Gator fans! Well, that’s the past and we start a new era of Gator football
with Coach Billy Napier. And that should make all Gator fans really nervous.
Not because of him, just because we are starting on the fourth coach in 12
years since Urban Meyer left town, not including interim coaches.
It's going to be a rough year in Gainesville for the first-year
coach. He’s going to be brining in a new system, which might be better or worse.
He’s going to be starting a QB who’s never been the starting QB at the
beginning of a SEC season or played an entire season without getting injured.
There’s a new staff on defense, that can only get better right? There are
transfers and new additions. In short we just don’t know how all this is going
to come together until we see on the turf at the Swamp for real.
But I’ll take me lumps and make my guesses just like the
boys at the networks do.
The Gators open against the #13 Utah Utes. This is the
toughest home opener I can remember. All those fans who clamor for a tougher
schedule need to remain quiet when the Gators lose their first home opener
since they were born! And it could easily happen. The good thing is that the Utes
don’t know what the Gators will look like. The bad thing is that neither do the
Gators. It would be great time to have a directional school on the opening
docket, but alas that isn’t the case. The Gators have enough talent to hang with
the Utes. The real question is can Anthony Richardson be the GUY! I’ll pick the
worst and hope for the best, but I think the Gators lose a really close game
late.
Whatever happens in week one, there will be little time to
celebrate or mope. The first SEC game hits the next Saturday with #18 Kentucky
coming to town. On paper the game seems to point to two in a row for the Cats.
I don’t think the home crowd will forget the loss last year and hopefully
neither will the Gators. I think the Gators find a way to de-claw the cats and
bring their record to 1-1.
The USF bulls come to town in week three. AR ran all over
them last year before he hurt his hammy on a long run. Look for more of the
same this year, hopefully without the injury. The Gators should take care of
business and run their way to a 2-1 record.
The Gators travel to Knoxville for a tilt with #25
Tennessee. I’m not sold on the truth of that ranking. I think like always it’s
based on the end of the season rally by the Vols. Their schedule usually is
very easy in November, so they always close strong. Playing at Neyland is
always tricky. This one will be a dog fight and the team who’s young QB
performs better should win. I’ll never pick UT over UF but this one is scary.
Gators in a close one to move to 3-1.
The game I wish we could swap for the opener happens the next
week. The paycheck game for EWU should be an easy win for the Gators, but we
seem to make them closer than they need to be. Let’s hope Napier finds a way to
get the guys ready to play and the third string guys get some reps early in the
fourth.
Missouri arrives the next week for Homecoming. This one will
be determined by how healthy AR is at this juncture. If he’s still healthy the Gators
win easily. If not, then it’s a coin toss. By this point we will know how this
coaching staff chooses to use his incredible talents and whether they have
succeeded in turning him into a legitimate D1 Quarterback. This one should be a
really close game but I think the Gators move into the meat of their schedule
at 5-1.
I’m not a fan of Brian Kelly. I think he’s underachieved at
ND given the relatively easy schedule they play each year. A couple of tough
games and then the playoffs. I’m definitely not buying them as a top ten team,
but they will be a tough opponent. I’m going with a Gator win only because it
is at home and Marco Wilson is nowhere near the playing field late in the game!
The Gators could lose this one though if they don’t play smart. Something that
AR hasn’t shown as of this writing, but I hope does before this game starts!
The annual tilt with Georgia beckons. There is a reason
Kirby Smart doesn’t want to play in Jacksonville and it has nothing to do with
recruiting. The crowd may be 50-50 but the travel isn’t. The only thing that
keeps this game close is the fact that it’s in his head a bit. I still think
the Dogs win, but an upset isn’t out of the question. Sitting at 5-2 the Gators
will once again not win the East, but the gap is closing!
The Gators must travel to College Station to face the
Aggies. A lot of the vibe around this game will be determined by the games preceding
it from the Aggies. If they manage to beat Alabama and Ole Miss, they will beat
the Gators by 10. If they lose one of those games, they win by a field goal. If
they lose them both the Gators will pull the upset. I don’t think that’s going
to happen and the Gators fall to 5-3.
UF returns home to face South Carolina in the last home game
on the schedule. South Carolina will be better if their QB stays healthy. The
real question will be how much fire is left in Gator nation and this team. If
they both play their best, I think the Gators still have more talent. If the
swamp is still electric, then BBQ chicken is definitely on the menu. I think it
will be and the Gators move to 6-3.
The bi-annual trip to Vanderbilt is next. As long as the
team doesn’t join the overwhelmingly Gator crowd on Broadway the night before,
the Gators should win this noon kick off, 11 AM Central time, sleeper of a
game. AR needs a big game in Nashville for the Gators to win comfortably. I
think they get it from him and win going away.
That means they travel to the team out west with a record of
7-3 at best and maybe 5-5. The Noles will want to exact some measure of revenge
on the Gators. I just don’t think they have the Jimmies and Joes to make it
happen. It will be a close game but I think the Gators get on the buses heading
East with a reason to celebrate all Friday night and the rest of the
Thanksgiving weekend.
So hopefully they finish 8-3 and play in a decent bowl, maybe
even a New Year’s Day trip to Orlando, Jacksonville, or Tampa. But don’t be too
surprised if they finish 6-5 and go to another who cares bowl in the middle of
December.
It all depends on how well AR plays and how well Billy
Napier and his staff adjust to SEC football. Only time will tell. Gator fans be
patient. Saban’s first year at Bama was a rough one, this one may be too! Let’s
hope the rest of his time in Gainesville takes the same trajectory as his
former boss’ did!
