2015 Gator Football down the stretch

So as we move into November, it sure doesn’t feel like it here in Sunny Florida, let’s take a look at my football predictions for our Gators. Here’s what I wrote after the first four games as an update to what I wrote before the season.

But let’s look at the next four predictions. I said we would lose at home versus Ole Miss and I still stand by that prediction. I do think we have a better chance than I thought at the start of the season, but I don’t think our o-line can block well enough to give the run game any chance and Grier will have to be running for his life back there. Our only hope is that the young QB from Ole Miss will get rattled by the swamp and the hits from our defense and throw a couple of picks and maybe a pick-six!

The Missouri game is one that could change depending on the status of Maty Mauk. If he’s back from the suspension, it’s a toss-up and the loss on the road is still a definite chance. If he’s not, then I think the Gators will win that game and the chance for the magical season of 10-2 drastically increases. A lot hinges on what he did to get kicked out for one game!

Nothing has changed about my prediction for the LSU game. Well with the exception that unless #7 gets hurt, he’ll run for 200 yards against our weak Linebackers. They still win the game and now the next game against Georgia becomes huge!

I still think we can win against Georgia, but I must admit they are better than I thought they would be. However, they haven’t played the toughest of teams yet and this week we will know if they are for real or if they are the pretenders that they usually are. Also a tip of the cap needs to be given to the entire Georgia Athletic department for the class they have showed to the family of the young man injured in the game. They didn’t have to do what they have done, but they have demonstrated how to be a class organization for sure. With that being said, I still think they lose in Jacksonville.

So after the month of October I think the Gators will be 6-2 or 5-3 depending on the QB situation at Mizzou. That will mean the critical games for Coach Mac and the young Gators will be the ones in November. Fortunately three of those are at home. At 6-2 they will still be in the hunt for the SEC east but if they are 5-3 well then they are playing not to go back to the Birmingham Bowl. And that ought to be enough motivation to finish the season strong!

I have never been so glad to be wrong, even if it is only by a game! But you have to give me credit for laying out the plan for the way the Rebels would lose to the Gators, scary how accurate that prediction was, isn’t it! And that is without knowing that Will Grier would make an unfortunate stop at GNC.

So let’s take a look at November and the end of the regular season.

Homecoming against Vanderbilt will be back to the game a few years ago. Back before Vanderbilt hired a good coach. It will be closer than many expect because I don’t think they will turn the ball over 5 times like they did last Saturday, but I expect the Gators to win this one by 21 with ease. That will mean that Gator fans can book their tickets to Atlanta for the SEC championship game. I sure didn’t see that one coming this year but I am so glad it might happen!

The Gators then travel to South Carolina. If the Old HBC was still there, I’d stick with my pick from earlier, but this is a bad Gamecock team right now and it’s going to get worse before it gets better for Cocky fans. The Gators need to pay attention but if they take care of business, they should win this game as well. However, watch out because this could be the infamous letdown game that will follow the clinching of the SEC East. Gators win going away late to wrap the SEC portion of the year up with just the one loss at LSU.

The annual sacrificial game in November with the FAU owls should see the Gators play a lot of second and third team guys. The goal of that game is to get ahead early, rest the starters and get ready for the big post turkey game with the college out west. Florida wins big and starts to move up the Playoff ladder.

The Game with the Clowns may be the biggest game of the year if they can get by Clemson this week. I don’t think they will but Clemson has a way of laying an egg every year and so far the clutch has been empty. If they do win at Clemson, then get ready for Gameday and the hype will be over the top. If they don’t, then they would like nothing better than to beat the Gators and kick them out of the Playoff discussion. I still think the Gators will win this game, but it would have been a lot easier without the GNC issue. Treon is an ok quarterback and a great athlete. His struggles against good defenses will continue and the Gators will win it late with a defense stand!

So my prediction is the Gators will be sitting at 11-1 going into the SEC championship game in Atlanta. The chance for the magical 12-2 season remains. Who knows, it might even be 14-1 and that would mean this generation of Gator fans could learn to experience the ultimate celebration in Title Town. Nobody's seen that in a while!

2015 Gator Football at the quarter pole

So let’s update the Gator football prediction through the first quarter of the seasons. To see the full blog, click here. So I predicted an easy win in game one, check. A tougher win but comfortable in game two, check. A close win on the road in Kentucky, check. And a very close win against the Vols, check again. That puts me four for four and I think I hurt my arm patting myself on the back!

But let’s look at the next four predictions. I said we would lose at home versus Ole Miss and I still stand by that prediction. I do think we have a better chance than I thought at the start of the season, but I don’t think our o-line can block well enough to give the run game any chance and Grier will have to be running for his life back there. Our only hope is that the young QB from Ole Miss will get rattled by the swamp and the hits from our defense and throw a couple of picks and maybe a pick-six!

The Missouri game is one that could change depending on the status of Maty Mauk. If he’s back from the suspension, it’s a toss-up and the loss on the road is still a definite chance. If he’s not, then I think the Gators will win that game and the chance for the magical season of 10-2 drastically increases. A lot hinges on what he did to get kicked out for one game!

Nothing has changed about my prediction for the LSU game. Well with the exception that unless #7 gets hurt, he’ll run for 200 yards against our weak Linebackers. They still win the game and now the next game against Georgia becomes huge!

I still think we can win against Georgia, but I must admit they are better than I thought they would be. However, they haven’t played the toughest of teams yet and this week we will know if they are for real or if they are the pretenders that they usually are. Also a tip of the cap needs to be given to the entire Georgia Athletic department for the class they have showed to the family of the young man injured in the game. They didn’t have to do what they have done, but they have demonstrated how to be a class organization for sure. With that being said, I still think they lose in Jacksonville.

So after the month of October I think the Gators will be 6-2 or 5-3 depending on the QB situation at Mizzou. That will mean the critical games for Coach Mac and the young Gators will be the ones in November. Fortunately three of those are at home. At 6-2 they will still be in the hunt for the SEC east but if they are 5-3 well then they are playing not to go back to the Birmingham Bowl. And that ought to be enough motivation to finish the season strong!

Russell Moore’s recent release Onward is a very engaging read. Dr. Moore has managed to write a book that challenges those inside the church who are fighting the culture wars and those on the outside with whom those wars are supposedly fought. I doubt that either group would be totally comfortable with what he writes on the pages of this new book.

The challenge to engage the culture without losing the Gospel is the subtitle of the book and the main premise of it. I found the ideas presented by Dr. Moore to be both refreshing and surprising. I don’t know what I expected when I began to read the book late in the summer, but I definitely didn’t think I would find so much common ground. However that common ground definitely looked a little different because he forced me to see it from a different angle.

The centrality of the Gospel is not new nor was it surprising as this has been a focal point for Dr. Moore for many years. The surprising point was the idea of fighting the culture war with kindness and the call to remember that we can’t share the message of Jesus without sharing it with the tone of Jesus too. This has been the experience I have had with many cultural warriors in the pulpits of our churches. My context of ministry on the college campus tends to put me in contact with a majority of people who don’t agree with the street preachers and pundits of moral majority. Dr. Moore advocates a different approach that if followed just might win a few of them into the kingdom of God instead of pushing them further away from actually hearing the voice of Jesus.

Culture continues to change and that change will increasingly make it clear which side we are on. Dr. Moore is not advocating backing down on our moral positions or making concessions to the culture on Biblical truth. Instead he suggests that we present the truth while remembering that the persons on the other side of the arguments are not the real enemy. That thought alone is worth reading the entire book!

I highly encourage you to read this book if you are serious about the influence of the church on culture or you are worried about the influence of the culture on the church. It’s not necessarily an easy read. You have to stay with it and you have to engage your mind as you read. That may be what made it a great book in my opinion!

On Guard for Students by William Lane Craig

On Guard for Students by William Lane Craig is a well thought out response to several questions students may face as they interact with other students on the high school or college campus.

Some of the arguments were a bit overstated and repetitive. Some would be challenged as fighting against straw men by others who are not believers in Jesus. But overall this is a very valuable resource for serious students of the faith who want to be able to give a “reasonable account for the hope that is within them”.

The writing is deep enough and has enough technical information to be useful to any student and is simple enough that most students will be able to use the arguments themselves. That fact is the best thing about the book for me as a practitioner of ministry to and with college students.

I will be recommending my students read this book and highly recommend others do the same.  

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Gator Football 2015 Prognostication

So let me start out by saying I have not seen any secret practices nor do I have a crystal ball! These are my guesses as to the year that will be Florida Football year 1 under Coach McElwain. I predict that the Gators will go 8-4 on the season and will finish unfortunately third or fourth in the SEC east. Now if things go perfectly and they have a better offensive year than most expect, they could go 11-1. If they turn the ball over and bad things happen in a couple of close games they could end up 5-7. How’s that for covering all the bases. Here’s how they get there.

Opener against New Mexico State

Barring another lightning delay and cancellation, the Gators should win this one easily. I think the coach’s dog could play quarterback in this one and the Gators should still win. If this one is close, there is trouble in the swamp and the fire McElwain site goes up by midnight!

Home against East Carolina

The repeat of the Birmingham bowl should have a similar result. I think this is a good test to see where the new Gator offensive will be going into the season. It’s not a pushover game and the Gators better come fully prepared for a battle. I think they will have enough with the home crowd to overcome a good ECU team and win a closer than some would want game.

AT Kentucky

The Cats will be looking to end that impressive streak of losses to the Gators and this might be their best chance since last year to do so. I just don’t think they have the talent to do it even though the game is in Lexington. The good part for them is the game is a week earlier than usual so Basketball startup will not be on the calendar for a couple of weeks yet. I think the Gators win this one too but Gator fans will not rest easy at any point during the game.

Home against Tennessee

This one is the make or break game for me. If Florida wins this game I think they have a good shot at 8-4. If they lose this game they have a great shot at 5-7. This will be the first game where the talent is equal or the balance may be in Tennessee’s favor. The Vols have a tough time in Gainesville and it wouldn’t be the first UT team to come into the swamp and throw up on themselves before leaving hot, humid, and unfriendly Florida. This one could go either way but given the track record of the pansy orange in the swamp, I’ll give the nod to the Gators in a close win.

Home against Ole Miss

This is the first swing game that has to go well for the Gators to have the magical 11-1 season or 10-2 season and win the SEC east. I don’t think it will. I’m just not convinced that the Gators have enough playmakers on offense to make a significant dent in the stout landshark defense. The first team to 10 points could win this one. That’s why it could go the Gator’s way. Ole Miss will have a new QB and a gift score from him could turn the tide and give Florida their first upset of the season. I’m saying they have a chance, but I don’t think the Gators will avoid their first loss of the season.

AT Missouri

The Gators second road trip to an SEC east opponent will not end well. I think the defense will keep it close this time unless the refs call a flagrant foul on the first deep ball again. Maty Mauk may be the best QB returning in the SEC, so the defense will have to have a standout effort to keep it close. This is another game where a few breaks that go the Gators way could produce an upset in Columbia. How far the offense has progressed will also be a factor in the Gators coming away from the farthest west team in the east with a victory. I don’t see that happening and the Gators are 4-2 on the plane home.

At LSU

The annual battle with the bayou bengals will live up to the billing. The Gators will play well but come up short in Death Valley once again. Some way, the grass eating Mad Hatter will find a way to pull another victory from the jaws of defeat and the slide will reach three games. All the rhetoric about who has the best defensive backfield won’t matter because the Gator front seven will not be able to stand up and the offensive line will get pushed around against the Tiger defensive front. The tough October continues to cause depression in Gator land and the team comes home on a three game losing skid.

Georgia

This game is another benchmark game for the Gators. Georgia will be good, but I’m not so sure they are that much better than the Gators. The only problem will be the Gator’s confidence will be pretty low if my predictions are correct. But if the breaks fall the Gator’s way and they were to come into this game at 6-1, I think the old pucker factor for the Dogs would return when they cross the St. John’s River. This game could go either way as most of the games in the rivalry do. In the end, I think the Gators get it done in Jacksonville and Georgia fans drive back north disappointed once again.

Homecoming against Vandy

Vandy will return to Vandy. The Gators should win this one easily.

At South Carolina

The HBC will have some tricks up his sleeve for the NBC. I think this continues the trend of close games that could go either way for the Gators, but I don’t believe the offense will have enough to overcome the Gamecocks on the road. But if the moon is full and the ball bounces right, watch out for the upset. This will be the game that decides the East and anything is possible!

Home against FAU

The offense will look great against the Owls. For the first time in two months the fans in the swamp should be able to breath easy from the kick. This might be the first game in Four years that Gator fans can breath easy about in the swamp. The first game will be full of emotion and this team will have to build some momentum before fans go back to the swagger of the Tebow era days of feeling invincible in the swamp.

Home against FSU

The clowns will be good again. I don’t think they will be great. As much as I dislike Winston as an off the field disaster, he was great on the field. His presence held that team together and his absence will show that the Noles have a few holes in them this year. I think the Gators have a good shot at beating them at home but they will have to play their best game of the year. They could lose this one too especially if they are on the track to finish 5-7 after losing close games to TN, GA, and the other predicted losses to Ole Miss, Mizz, and SCar.

So there you have it. Gator fans will be on the edge of our seats all year long. It will take McElwain some time to get the right kind of players in here to make his offense go. But with a little luck and some guys stepping up this has the potential to be either a horrible or magical season. My gut tells me to split it down the middle and prepare for another season of just being outside the top 25 and a trip to a mid-major bowl. 

Later Summer Reading Thriller!

Trial Run is the latest fiction work by Thomas Locke. It is just in time to enliven your summer reading. It’s the perfect book for that vacation at the beach, or the mountains, or just to read in your home over the weekend. Wherever you take it, I think you will find it hard to put down until you reach the last page!

The plot for this work will require you to suspend your beliefs for a little while as all good science fiction. The gap is not that wide however between what you read and what you know that you can’t make the leap safely. You just have to make sure you can come back safely. That’s a little inside insight that you will get when you read Trial Run. The story makes you totally believe in the possibility of the research being done and the settings allow you to identify with both the possibility and probability of these types of experiments being done at a facility near you!

The character development in the story is exactly what we have come to expect from Locke. They are rich, deep, and slightly problematic. They don’t always measure up to what you hope they would be and yet they surprise us in ways that makes us smile as we read. The imagery is detailed and delightfully laid out so as to elicit an almost tangible mental image of the settings of the story.

Locke and the publisher have remedied one of the issues I had with the story prior to its release.  They have released a free prequel to Trial Run. Here’s the promotional copy for that as well as the link where you can download it for free:

            Discover how it all began in this explosive prequel to Trial Run…

There isn’t much that can throw Charlie Hazard off balance. But the mystery woman with the striking eyes and the intense request to follow her—now—just might accomplish it.

Knowing little more than her beautiful name, Charlie leaves his post as a guard at the Satellite Beach community center for what he thinks is just another risk-containment job.

But Gabriella, an experimental psychologist, has far more in store for him than protection duty—if the two of them survive the test.

Leave behind your perceptions of what is possible and race into the unknown corridors of human consciousness in this breakneck prequel to Thomas Locke’s Trial Run. Click herehttp://tlocke.com/fault-lines/ to download “Double Edge,” free from your favorite online bookseller.

I was most displeased with the ending of the book. Not because of the content, or the writing, simply that it was over. Without giving away the plot, I can’t wait to the next volume in the series. I think you will as well when you finish reading this summer thriller!

I received a complimentary copy of this book from Revell in exchange for my honest review.